Sabah election 2025: Who will form the next Sabah government?

Arnold Puyok

The race is on, and today is the day of reckoning, with about 1.8 million Sabahans heading to the polls to choose 73 representatives in what has become Sabah’s most crowded marketplace of democracy.

For some, such fragmentation risks further destabilising Sabah’s political arena. But for others, it represents the very essence of competitive democracy in a developing society where democratic politics can be both a bane and a boon.

It depends on how it is understood and how it is practised.

Sabah’s election is complex and never easy to predict. Still, after nomination day and judging from the flood of posters and flags, the broad battle lines are clear.

In Muslim bumiputra seats, it is essentially Gabungan Rakyat Sabah versus Barisan Nasional versus Warisan.

In the non-Muslim bumiputra belt, the contest is centred on GRS, Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Malaysia (PKDM), Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (Star)and United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (Upko).

In ethnic plurality and ethnically mixed constituencies, the field is wide open to all major contenders.

So the crucial question remains: how will each party fare, and who will form the next government?

Despite the headline issues such as mining scandals, the 40% revenue demand, Sabah First sentiment and persistent infrastructure problems, voters will still gravitate toward candidates who are closest to them, who show personal touch and who deliver.

In predominantly rural constituencies, tangible and immediate results matter more than lofty promises.

Here, GRS retains a clear advantage due to its control over resources and government machinery.

Warisan remains GRS’s strongest challenger, particularly in the East Coast and in several West Coast constituencies where its grassroots support has not faded.

BN, meanwhile, is competitive in selected strongholds but is not strong enough statewide to dislodge either GRS or Warisan.

A similar pattern is visible in the non-Muslim bumiputra areas, where personality and performance outweigh party labels.

What stands out, however, is PKDM’s disruptive effect, softening the dominance of Kadazandusun-based parties like Parti Bersatu Sabah, Star and Upko, and making Kadazandusun politics the most fragmented arena of this election.

Based on current dynamics, the likely outcome for Muslim bumiputra areas would be: GRS (15), Warisan (12), BN (8), independents (2) and PKR (1).

In the non-Muslim bumiputra seats: GRS (7), Star (3), Upko (3), PKDM (2), BN (1) and PKR (1).

In ethnic plurality constituencies: GRS (5), Warisan (2), the DAP (1), independent (1), PKR (1) and BN (1).

And in ethnically mixed seats, the contest narrows to Warisan, the DAP and GRS, with projected results of Warisan (4), the DAP (2) and GRS (1).

No party is on track to secure an outright majority.

The next state government will almost certainly be a coalition, not bound by ideological position but stitched together by political expediency.

One plausible scenario mirrors the federal unity-government formula, with GRS, BN, PH and others combining to form a government, leaving Warisan as the core opposition bloc.

Two developments will be worth watching.

First, whether a mini ethnic Chinese tsunami emerges in Chinese-majority and Chinese-influenced mixed seats which is a real possibility given the mood on the ground.

Second, the potential rise of strong independents capable of creating upsets. Seats to watch here include Pintasan and Bandau.

As polling closes, another moment of anticipation begins: the formation of the new government and the appointment of the next chief minister.

Behind the scenes of excitement, intense bargaining and quiet betrayals, the role of the man behind the palace gate remains pivotal.

I have been right in anticipating winners and losers in past elections, and wrong at times which is the nature of this work, tied as it is to the complexity of Sabah politics.

But ultimately, it is the voters who decide, and their choices can shift in an instant, overturning even the most careful analyses.

Selamat mengundi (Happy voting)!

Arnold Puyok is a visiting senior fellow of the London School of Economics and an associate senior fellow of Iseas.

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