M Santhananaban
A reckless warmonger in the White House has pursued a destructive war directed primarily against Iran, but it has now spread to destabilise Lebanon and unsettle all the Gulf countries.
Under a new leader, Iran is no longer inclined to submit or surrender. Both the US and Israel will now face a more defiant Iran under a reinvigorated leadership.
The United States’ egregious Iranian ‘excursion’ has gone badly awry for Trump, whose aggression – pursued on behalf of the regime in Tel Aviv – has failed to deliver the quick and decisive victory he gambled on.
Tehran looks increasingly well-placed, despite absorbing a callous and costly aerial bombardment.
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Trump now looks trapped – and is still spinning remarkably tall stories.
The US has had to rely on a single rogue ally because its other, more cautious partners appear to prefer neutrality.
The Gulf Cooperation Council states that host US bases and assets have clearly had a change of heart about a war that is widely seen as being driven primarily by Israel’s agenda. There appears to be a consensus within the GCC that its members would rather err on the side of caution than be seen to do Washington’s bidding.
Trump is no oracle capable of deciding or dictating the course of the war he started. It will be interesting to watch what contortions he attempts to extricate himself from a war that has become a whirlpool he cannot escape.
Mojtaba Khamenei – son of the assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – has effectively secured his mandate to pursue the war with clarity, courage and coordination.
Trump, by contrast, relies on rhetoric. The Iranian leadership relies on resolve and calculated reprisals.
The US president does not appear to have a coherent strategy or the right team to pursue this war. With the out-of-his-depth Pete Hegseth as his defence chief and Secretary of State Marco Rubio appearing distracted by the US squeeze on Cuba, the US side is simply failing to project competent leadership.
This adventure is turning into an embarrassing setback for Trump. More damaging still, he appears to be losing both his clout and his credibility.
In the meantime, opposition to the war will grow stronger, both domestically and internationally. The high cost of the war will severely affect all countries, including the US.
The global economy is already feeling the strain: rising oil and gas prices, disrupted energy supplies, higher shipping and insurance costs are all taking their toll. The GCC countries look particularly vulnerable, heavily exposed as they are to food import dependency.
We are witnessing a global convulsion that will probably put the US on the back foot.
Trump now needs a respectable exit strategy. The question is: who can persuade Iran to provide one?
Dato’ M Santhananaban is a former Malaysian ambassador with 45 years of public sector experience.
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