Malaysia’s fractured politics: Will the ‘Madani’ coalition survive?

For most people in Malaysia, keeping up with the gyrations of the political landscape is no simple task.

Coalitions form, fracture, realign and rebrand. Yet these shifts matter profoundly, because the stability of national governance, the health of the body politic, depends on them.

Let’s examine the latest developments in Malaysia’s coalition politics and explore what they mean for the country’s long-term political health.

A decade ago, in Power Sharing in a Divided Nation: Mediated Communalism and New Politics in Six Decades of Malaysia’s Elections, I argued that Malaysia had entered a new era of twin-coalition politics.

The 2008 general election was the turning point: for the first time in its history, Barisan Nasional lost its long-held two-thirds parliamentary majority. That moment ended an era of one-party dominance and opened the door to a more competitive – and, inevitably, more unstable – political environment.

Fluid coalitions

The years that followed confirmed this trend. However, no coalition since 2008 has come close to regaining a supermajority. Fragmentation has become the norm. Coalitions rise and fall not only through voter sentiment but also through internal politicking, factional manoeuvring and shifting alliances.

The next major rupture came in 2018, when Pakatan Harapan (PH), a successor to the earlier opposition blocs of Barisan Alternatif and Pakatan Rakyat – defeated BN, ending its six-decade rule.

PH’s victory was historic: a simple majority in the 222-seat House of Representatives, and Malaysia’s first peaceful transfer of federal power since independence.

But the victory was short-lived. Internal politicking culminated in the infamous Sheraton Move of February 2020, which brought down the PH government.

What followed was a period of turbulence, with three prime ministers in under three years: Mahiaddin Yasin, Ismail Sabri Yaakob and then Anwar Ibrahim.

Between 2020 and 2022, Malaysia experienced razor-thin parliamentary margins, intense factional battles and the rise of Perikatan Nasional, which leaned heavily into Malay-Muslim politics.

By late 2022, pressure from within Umno led Ismail Sabri to dissolve Parliament, triggering a general election. The polls produced Malaysia’s first hung parliament, with PH winning 82 seats, PN 73 and BN 30.

In response, Anwar Ibrahim forged a unity coalition – the “Madani” (civil and compassionate) government – bringing together PH, BN, Gabungan Parti Sarawak, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah and several smaller parties.

The Madani government today

Against expectations, this broad and ideologically diverse coalition has held together.

As of early 2026, the Madani government commands a stable majority, with PH holding 79 seats, BN 30, GPS 23, GRS five and other direct supporters 16, giving the coalition a total of 153 seats.

The opposition stands at 69: PN with 62 (Pas 43 and Bersatu 19), Muda with one and independents or others with six.

In theory, this gives the Madani government a comfortable margin.

In practice, however, Malaysia’s coalition politics remains fluid and unpredictable. Factional rivalries, party leadership struggles and strategic realignments continue to shape the political terrain – and is likely to intensify as the next general election approaches.

At first glance the Madani coalition appears steady, but beneath this surface familiar fissures are beginning to show. The mainstay of the coalition are PH’s two largest parties: the DAP with 40 seats and PKR with 39. The tensions are subtle, not yet explosive, but unmistakably present.

The DAP remains relatively well-managed with few internal tensions. The current problems originate from the coalition’s lead party, PKR, the prime minister’s own party.

PKR’s fractured horizon

It is no secret in political circles that PKR has split into two clear factions. Former deputy president and ex-economy minister Rafizi Ramli leads a bloc of self-styled reformists numbering around 9–11 parliamentarians.

His defeat to Nurul Izzah Anwar in the party’s deputy presidency race last May deepened those divisions.

Rafizi’s resignation from the cabinet – along with that of Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, who stepped down as natural resources minister — followed shortly after, signalling personal disillusionment and a rebuke of the party’s direction.

Rafizi’s subsequent remarks have only sharpened the picture. In a candid BFM interview last month, he said he was open to “sailing our own ship” – a phrase political observers have interpreted as the clearest hint yet that a new political vehicle may be on the horizon as the general election approaches.

More confrontationally, Rafizi appears to be “going for the kill” over the continuing controversy surrounding Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission chief Azam Baki – a move that could destabilise both PKR’s internal cohesion and the Madani government’s credibility.

In short, PKR is not in flames, but it is undeniably in trouble. What we are witnessing is less a crisis than a controlled implosion: slow, deliberate and likely to reshape the party’s political future.

Umno: a surprising calm

Unexpectedly, stability has come from an unlikely source: Umno, the principal BN component and PH’s key coalition partner. Despite years of infighting, the party today looks more aligned than it has in a long time.

Its most striking gesture came in early March 2026, when Umno president Zahid Hamidi publicly extended a reconciliatory “rumah bangsa” (national house) olive branch to former party youth wing chief and former health minister Khairy Jamaluddin, inviting former members back into the fold.

Khairy responded publicly and promptly – on the Keluar Sekejap podcast – by instructing his press secretary to “begin drafting” a formal re-entry application, which he then submitted in mid-March.

The symbolism was unmistakable: Umno, battered but pragmatic, is preparing for electoral survival, and Khairy is once again central to that calculation.

Analysts note that in welcoming him back, Umno is signalling a willingness to recalibrate itself as the general election looms.

It is an ironic twist: where PKR shows fissures, Umno now projects reconciliation.

Borneo partners: quiet stabilisers?

Meanwhile, across the South China Sea, Madani’s East Malaysian partners – GRS and GPS – have continued to play their roles as stabilisers.

Their support has largely held firm, driven by shared interests in development and the perennial, unfinished business of Malaysia Agreement 1963 rights.

Their posture has been notably pragmatic: steady enough to support the federal government, yet insistent enough to remind Putrajaya of long-standing constitutional obligations embedded in MA63.

In this respect, Sabah and Sarawak remain the coalition’s anchor of calm — a counterweight to the peninsula-based volatility.

Bersatu’s self-inflicted wounds

If PKR appears fractured, the opposition’s lead party, Bersatu, is in outright disarray.

In February 2026, the party expelled 17 members, including deputy president Hamzah Zainudin, four MPs and two state assembly members. This purge was reportedly triggered by internal attempts to unseat party president Mahiaddin.

The expulsions triggered a wave of resignations and divisional dissolutions, signalling a power struggle that has reached an irreconcilable stage.

Hamzah’s removal also destabilises the broader PN coalition, given his role as Opposition Leader.

With Bersatu fragmenting and losing senior figures, Pas now emerges as the coalition’s de facto anchor, commanding the largest share of opposition seats in Parliament and assuming a leadership role once held by its beleaguered partner.

What lies ahead

This brief survey only scratches the surface of the political strains facing the Madani coalition government.

For Anwar’s government, the most immediate threat does not come from the opposition benches but from within its own tent.

As the election approaches, coalition stability will hinge on whether PKR can reconcile its fractures – or whether Rafizi’s possible new party becomes the next catalyst for realignment.

Coalition politics, by its very nature, is fluid and prone to instability.

But the past decade should have taught us that political volatility is rarely an accident. More often than not, it is the behaviour of political leaders themselves that deepens divisions and accelerates fragmentation.

Unfortunately, the pattern persists. A review of Malaysia’s coalition history shows that leaders frequently become the source, rather than the solution, to the very instability they decry.

The current dynamics under the Madani government suggest that this cycle is far from broken. The coalition may appear steady, but it remains far from secure and the underlying tensions are unmistakable.

Given the trends we are witnessing today – from intra-party fissures to shifting alliances and leadership rivalries – it would not be surprising if Malaysia once again found itself confronting another hung parliament after the coming general election.

The challenge for the political class is clear: unless leaders are willing to rise above factional impulses and personal ambitions, coalition politics will remain a revolving door rather than a foundation for long-term governance.

Johan Saravanamuttu
Co-editor, Aliran newsletter
20 March 2026

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