Charles Santiago
“It’s the economy, stupid.” James Carville coined the phrase during Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign.
It was a reminder that voters make political choices based on what affects their everyday lives. Money matters most of all.
Over three decades on, it still holds true. Negeri Sembilan’s election has shown why.
A squeeze on wallets
Pakatan Harapan has run Negeri Sembilan since 2018. Yet turnout rose from 68.4% in 2023 to 72.6% this time.
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More voters turned out – and delivered a clear message by backing the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional loose alliance.
The message is simple: people are struggling and they are angry.
A July Vodus survey found that 55% of Negeri Sembilan voters ranked the cost of living as their top concern. Jobs and wages came next at 34%, followed by housing at 26%.
The government may point to economic growth and strong economic indicators.
But ordinary people are asking a simpler question: why aren’t we feeling it in our wallets?
Families remain squeezed by rising prices, low wages and thin savings. Sara cash aid may offer some relief. But it cannot make up for an economy that fails to deliver steady, decent incomes.
Healthcare costs add another burden. NGOs in Negeri Sembilan raised these concerns with us again and again.
Gig workers face a similar problem. The Gig Workers Act still classes them as independent contractors, not employees. Their social protection is also largely funded from their own earnings.
For a young and increasingly precarious workforce, this is hardly the protection they were promised.
The Indian community’s message
The Indian community also sent a clear signal to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
Ethnic Indians make up 14.9% of Negeri Sembilan’s 889,490 voters – the highest share of any state. Their numbers exceed 20% in 11 seats and reach roughly a third of the electorate in Jeram Padang.
Our conversations with NGOs suggested many were satisfied with the state government. But they wanted to send a message to the federal leadership.
The temple dispute and the dismissive response to a matriculation student have taken a toll. So has a wider sense that the community’s support has been taken for granted.
PH’s lost reform compass
BN-PN, meanwhile, successfully rallied ethnic Malay voters around the politics of Malay unity. They painted the DAP as the bogeyman and offered ketuanan Melayu or Malay dominance as the answer to Malay grievances.
PH cannot counter this simply by assuming voters will stay loyal.
More worrying still: PH itself appears to have lost its reform compass. Its handling of corruption, the Azam Baki controversy and the growing sway of corporate and labour cartels have eroded trust.
Middle-class voters and many longtime supporters have noticed the drift.
The reformasi promise once brought people onto the streets and to the ballot box. That promise is increasingly giving way to political expediency.
Anwar and PH must understand this: voters are not stupid, and they are not loyal forever.
The Negeri Sembilan result is not just about one election. It is a warning that economic hardship, broken promises and political arrogance will eventually catch up with any government.
The window to act is closing. The next general election is no longer a distant event.
PH should remember how it came to power – and why it could just as easily lose it.
Charles Santiago is a prominent Malaysian politician, economist and human rights advocate who served three terms as the MP for Klang and has twice chaired the National Water Services Commission.
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