I write this reflection sitting in the British Library, where I am doing some research of my own. I believe that, despite all the knowledge we have accumulated, the human species is hurtling towards several irreversible crises. One such crisis is the rising number of failing and near-failing modern states. Why is this so? Can this be checked?
A most recent concern about The Anthropocene – the epoch of human civilisation and its activities – revolves around the emergence of the modern nation-state, which has arguably been served by human ‘progress’ for about four centuries since the end of the European wars in the late 17th Century.
Even two devastating world wars, the second ending in 1945, did not see the demise of the modern state. Indeed, the modern state continues to dominate human relations with no competitor in sight.
With the end of European colonialism, which spread the sovereign state’s footprint globally, two major socio-political trajectories of the modern state have been seen.
First, more and more human collectives are aspiring – often struggling – to become self-determined states. Today, the UN boasts a record 193 member- states. Expect more members to be added soon.
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The contrarian trend is the frequent collapse and failure of many existing states.
Failing states
State failures have become more common, as anyone watching TV or scrolling a mobile phone call tell you. Only a small privileged number of states maintain a decent standard of living for its people. Even fewer can maintain political systems which are stable or functioning well.
A majority of nations are poor or underdeveloped. These are rarely socially and politically stable.
Recent and current state failures include Myanmar, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Congo, Rwanda, Syria, Yemen and Sri Lanka. Civil war and severe economic decline have contributed to some of these failures.
Sadly, the horrendous case of a Palestinian state struggling to exist comes to mind. A neighbouring country has incessantly invaded and occupied Palestinian territory, acting with total impunity.
The Fragile States Index (FSI) presents a global view of the precarious status of the modern state today.
The index looks at social indicators such as demographic pressures and the presence of refugees and internally displaced persons. It also considers economic indicators such as uneven development and poverty. Political and cohesion indicators – such as state legitimacy, human rights and factionalised elites – are also considered.
The index thus gives a pretty accurate picture of the modern state’s fragility and tendency towards failure, although some may argue that the researchers may have their own biases.
The FSI’s 2023 report states that many previously stable Western states have become more fragile with the emergence of factionalised elites.
A granular analysis would require intimate knowledge of specific countries or states. But the FSI is a useful first cut of comparative knowledge about states across the globe.
The picture that emerges is hardly encouraging.
Check out this interactive heat map showing the resilience or fragility of some 179 states in the world today for which FSI data was obtained.
Is Malaysia fragile?
Bottom of the list of most fragile states – making it the most cohesive and resilient nation – is Norway in 179th spot. Finland, in 178th place, is the second-least fragile.
Click here to see the ranking of all the 179 states.
Interestingly, Malaysia sits comfortably in 126th place with a score of 53.1 (far below the score of 120 for the highest level of fragility). Singapore (165th place) has 25.5 points, Indonesia (102nd) has 63.7 and Thailand (95th) scores 66.2.
This means Malaysia is apparently less fragile than all its Southeast Asian neighbours, apart from Singapore.
The graphic below shows that our resilience has improved over the last decade, with 2024 looking promising.
Sceptics may find all this hard to believe. But, in the overall scheme of things, it does suggest that Malaysia is a stable state showing few signs of failing.
No doubt, social cohesion issues, poverty and economic mismanagement afflict the people of Malaysia. And yes, the people may sometimes feel that the nation’s political fragility is problematic despite its favourable score in the fragile states index.
Yet, the nation is no basket case. Just imagine how much more serious the problems are among the 125 nations more fragile than Malaysia (which lies in 126th place)! Still, there is no room for complacency.
Clearly, the six most fragile states in the index – Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Syria, Congo and Yemen – plus quite a few more below, are in reality failed states. Many among the other nations with scores exceeding 80 points are failing states.
What is to be done?
The modern state is in crisis. Judging by one broad empirical index of how it is faring, many states have undoubtedly failed and a string of others are failing.
The chief factor holding states together is social cohesion, while severe economic strains are clearly a major cause of state failure. These two factors are intimately connected.
When society is deeply divided and factionalised by political elites who have no other agenda other than to stay in power, a state becomes highly fragile.
When elites badly manage economic resources or when kleptocrats waste, loot or appropriate these resources, conditions are ripe for the deep rot that fuels state failure.
The crisis of the modern state is not insurmountable. The human species must act now to avert the telltale causes of state failure and strengthen the sinews that bind the modern state.
Johan Saravanamuttu
Co-editor, Aliran newsletter
20 October 2024
AGENDA RAKYAT - Lima perkara utama
- Tegakkan maruah serta kualiti kehidupan rakyat
- Galakkan pembangunan saksama, lestari serta tangani krisis alam sekitar
- Raikan kerencaman dan keterangkuman
- Selamatkan demokrasi dan angkatkan keluhuran undang-undang
- Lawan rasuah dan kronisme
Spot on, Johan!