M Santhananaban
Iran and the US fought for more than 100 days after Washington and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.
Israel’s attacks on southern Lebanon also drew in Hezbollah, Iran’s ally in that region.
The peace deal between Iran and the US is a significant achievement. But it remains fragile.
Free access through the Strait of Hormuz matters most to the wider world. The deal should restore some normality for ships in the strait, help lower oil prices and ease global inflation.
Unfinished business for Iran
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For Iran, other issues matter more than free passage: its frozen assets, compensation and security for itself and Lebanon.
But this looks like a hurried, trumped-up deal. It seems designed more to ease the pressure on Trump ahead of the 4 July celebrations than to settle the region’s deeper problems.
The memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed by US President Donald Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday – rather than at the planned June Geneva ceremony scheduled for Friday – will face scrutiny and stress tests. The real question is whether the US commitment is sincere.
The deal allows 60 days for further talks to fine-tune a wider peace process. Iran must use this chance to rebuild and restore stability in its relations with its Arab neighbours. Let us hope it works.
That hope was already being tested within days. Talks due to start in Switzerland were postponed, and conflicting reports suggested the strait had briefly been shut again. Tehran denied this, but the confusion alone shows how shaky the truce still is.
Israel left out, and still fighting
Israel seems to have been left out of the process. That raises uncertainty of its own. It is likely to continue working against the deal, but that is largely beyond the control of the US.
That said, the ceasefire agreed between Hezbollah and Israel is another important step in easing anxiety in West Asia. Yet the details of a durable peace still need to be hammered out between Iran and the US.
Given its history of territorial ambition, Israel may continue to act at another offensive level to undermine the peace process. Let us trust it can be restrained.
Trump, for his part, is likely to return to his usual boastful, combative style. Hopefully, this will not spark fresh aggression.
Dato’ M Santhananaban is a former Malaysian ambassador with 45 years of public sector experience.
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