M Santhananaban
On 12 April, an extraordinary effort got under way in Islamabad to find a durable solution to the deepening crisis sparked by the US war on Iran. It was, by any measure, a make-or-break moment.
US President Donald Trump appeared to have stepped back from his threat to reduce Iran to the “Stone Age”. Yet the gap between the two sides remained vast.
Iran refused to compromise on full control of the Strait of Hormuz and other questions of sovereignty and territorial integrity – demands that seem entirely reasonable given what has unfolded since 28 February.
Israel, the disruptive force kept out of the negotiations, could be expected to do everything possible to sabotage the talks.
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China appeared to have played an important and influential role in making these negotiations possible – a generous, face-saving gesture designed to salvage Trump’s isolated position in a war that has grown increasingly unpredictable.
If the US failed to offer meaningful concessions, this war – which Iran regards as an existential conflict – was likely to continue.
A lopsided table
The following day brought the full weight of history into the room. Forty-seven years after the rupture between Washington and Tehran, the 47th president of the US sent his highest-level delegation to Islamabad, led by Vice-President JD Vance, to try to supposedly resolve what are, at their core, deeply entrenched foreign policy failures.
The Iranian side – the long-standing victim of punishing economic sanctions and widely seen as the underdog – refused from the outset to be treated as the lesser party. Tehran sought to engage as an equal. Iran did not surrender.
Pakistan, the mediator, occupied an awkward middle position. It is unmistakably a client state – a conduit for both Washington and Beijing – heavily dependent on both for economic survival and constantly seeking validation from their capitals. The US has not had an ambassador in Islamabad since January 2025, a telling sign of how little it values the relationship.
Twenty-one hours of talks in a locked-down capital, hosted with warmth and generosity – the best biryani, freshly brewed coffee, delicious sweets – made for an impressive setting. But atmosphere alone could not bridge the chasm.
73 years of grievance
Iran’s preconditions were reasonable, given both the rare opportunity and the immense hardship the Iranian people have endured – not just for 47 years, but for 73, stretching back to the CIA-backed ouster of the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosadeq in August 1953.
Britain’s intelligence services played an equal part in that sinister seizure of power and control of Iran’s oil fields. The operation had been delayed because the US was still fighting in the Korean War until July 1953.
(Read the following June 1951 message from Mosadeq to President Harry Truman to further appreciate this issue, which was about Iran reasserting its right to sovereignty and protecting its legitimate interests.)
Given all of this, it was unrealistic to expect Iran to simply turn the other cheek in Islamabad.
The reckoning ahead
The failure of these talks ushers in a dangerous new era of brinkmanship.
Trump is now expected to attempt a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would worsen tensions and deal a further blow to an already weakening world economy. He appears to be driven more by Israel’s interests than by any clear or legitimate US strategic objective – a troubling dynamic that has shaped the attack on Iran from the start.
But it bears remembering: Trump has to end this war, or the war will end him. His position as president will then be jeopardised as he will not be able to secure congressional support for the war. That remains his central quandary.
Vance, meanwhile, is likely to face insults and ridicule from Trump for the mission’s failure – a familiar pattern. Yet Vance will be patient, as he will become president when Trump is removed. (Anyone would be a better president than the current incompetent incumbent.)
The failure of the Islamabad talks ushers a new and dangerous era of brinkmanship that threatens the whole world. The talks may have failed, but the need for a settlement has not gone away. Let us hope sanity still has a chance.
Dato’ M Santhananaban is a former Malaysian ambassador with 45 years of public sector experience.
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