M Santhananaban
A fortnight into the military excursion launched with such fanfare by the Benjamin Netanyahu–Donald Trump team, it is Iran that appears to have captured the more compelling narrative.
Trump and his Tel Aviv team are now confronting setback, stalemate and a loss of momentum. The aura of invincibility they projected so confidently is fading fast – and they are scrambling to find a way out.
Every exit plan floated by an obviously isolated US president seems to look even more catastrophic and chaotic than the last.
The Hormuz trap
Iran intends to impose in the Strait of Hormuz its own shipping restrictions, selectively targeting those countries allied to the US.
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France and Italy – and, in time, other G7 countries – will go to great lengths to demonstrate they are not party to the US adventure. The Hormuz move gives them every incentive to do so.
Trump has lost not only the narrative but the nerve to prosecute the war he started. Yet peace seems elusive – and particularly unattainable for Israel, the US’s sole ally in this disastrous misadventure. Few will lose sleep over that.
A trip to Beijing, of all places
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will accompany Trump on his Beijing visit on 31 March. This signals the importance being attached to the trip.
The question is whether Beijing will offer Trump some special dispensation in return for a good conduct bond.
Meanwhile, the informal alliance being forged between China, Russia, North Korea and other Bric nations on the side of Iran will continue to take shape. Trump could have planted the seeds for an eventual third world war – one in which the US will find itself somewhat isolated.
A world realigning
By sidelining the UN and the rules-based international order, Trump has undermined US prestige and pre-eminence. The conditions are slowly taking shape for a multipolar world to emerge within a few decades.
Dato’ M Santhananaban is a former Malaysian ambassador with 45 years of public sector experience.
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