By Nehru Sathiamoorthy
If you ask me who the biggest winner of Saturday’s Turun Anwar (Anwar, step down) rally was, my answer is clear: Pas and its president Hadi Awang.
Hadi may be older and in poor health. There has been talk of him stepping down to make way for younger leaders. But the massive turnout at the rally suggests otherwise. Hadi remains firmly in control of Pas.
An official estimate puts the rally size at 20,000. However, I was at the rally myself and estimate the crowd was much larger than official figures suggests.
My point here is that Hadi still possesses the ability to mobilise such a large crowd. That tells us his authority within PAS remains unshaken. His instructions are followed. His loyalists show up in force when called.
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Recently, Hadi said he wants to lead Pas until the end of his life. Judging by the strength of the turnout, it looks as if his wish will come true. Pas is due to hold its internal elections in September. Hadi has confirmed he will defend his position. At this rate, not only is he likely to win – he might even go unchallenged.
But even though Hadi was the clear winner on Saturday, that does not mean Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim lost.
Anwar did not lose because, despite the huge crowd at the rally, the event did not shift the political landscape. It didn’t change the status quo or create any new momentum. All it did was confirm what we already knew: there’s a large ethnic Malay base that supports Pas and wants to see Anwar fall. We’ve known this for three years. Since nothing came of it before, nothing new is likely to come from it now.
Also, the crowd at the rally was almost entirely Malay. I only saw a handful of ethnic Indian and Chinese attendees. While the ethnic minorities have become more openly critical of Anwar, it’s clear they’re not willing to back any effort by his opponents to bring him down.
Without meaningful support from Chinese, Indian, and East Malaysian voters, Pas can’t build the broad-based momentum it needs to topple Anwar. In fact, Pas’s show of strength may even push some of Anwar’s critics – especially among the ethnic minorities – back into his camp, albeit reluctantly, simply to keep Pas at bay.
Another reason Anwar didn’t lose is this: Saturday’s rally might be the last big anti-Anwar gathering we see from Pas for a while. Yes, Pas can mobilise numbers. But it hasn’t been able to convert that into real political momentum. It’s been showing off its strength for years now, but that strength alone hasn’t been enough to unseat Anwar. Without a clear plan to build more support, organising another rally would just be a waste of time, money and energy.
As of today, Anwar still looks like the only person the public sees as the legitimate leader of Malaysia.
People may be unhappy, frustrated or even angry with him. But none of that changes the fact that he is still seen as the country’s leader.
Now to the real losers of Saturday’s rally: Mahiaddin Yasin and Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
Mahiaddin, who already appears weak, looked even weaker in the context of this rally. Saturday should have been his moment. He is, after all, the head of Perikatan Nasional opposition coalition. If Anwar falls, Mahiaddin is supposed to be the alternative. That means he should have been front and centre, driving the event with energy and authority.
But he wasn’t. He was barely visible, let alone commanding. The fact he failed to stand out at an event that should have been his political platform only reinforces the idea that Bersatu and PN may need new leadership.
Even though Bersatu’s internal elections aren’t due soon, I expect calls to replace Mahiaddin will grow louder. Hamzah Zainuddn is already being promoted as his successor. Mahiaddin’s underwhelming presence at the rally will only strengthen that campaign.
Mahathir, meanwhile, went all out to promote the rally. He even released a video saying that economic stress was driving some people to unthinking acts like suicide and taking the lives of family members. But after Saturday, I believe Mahathir has run out of ammunition.
Worse, he may have handed Anwar the perfect excuse to strike back. His role in promoting the rally, along with his remarks on the Yusoff Rawther case and his refusal to accept Anwar’s forgiveness in the matter of the Batu Puteh royal commission of inquiry has probably crossed a line.
The rally failed to generate enough momentum to destabilise Anwar. This failure could now come back to haunt Mahathir.
In many ways, Mahathir has spent his last political coin trying to bring Anwar down. And in doing so, he may have only given Anwar more justification to go after him. If and when Anwar chooses to respond, Mahathir – aside from his advanced age – might find himself with nothing left to defend himself.
Nehru Sathiamoorthy follows the Aliran website.
AGENDA RAKYAT - Lima perkara utama
- Tegakkan maruah serta kualiti kehidupan rakyat
- Galakkan pembangunan saksama, lestari serta tangani krisis alam sekitar
- Raikan kerencaman dan keterangkuman
- Selamatkan demokrasi dan angkatkan keluhuran undang-undang
- Lawan rasuah dan kronisme
