The perfect storm starving the world

Ahmad Ibrahim

We are witnessing a dangerous unravelling of the global food system.

According to recent analysis, what was once a theoretical worry for policymakers has become a devastating reality for millions.

The world is not facing a single food crisis, but a ‘perfect storm’ where three colossal forces – the Covid lockdowns, the war in Ukraine and the accelerating climate crisis -have converged, exposing the profound fragility of how we feed the planet.

For decades, we operated under the illusion of a resilient, globalised food network.

But this system was built on brittle foundations: hyper-efficiency, just-in-time supply chains, and a dangerous concentration of production in a few ‘breadbasket’ regions.

The last few years have shattered this illusion, revealing a system prone to cascading failures.

The pandemic lockdowns

First, the pandemic delivered the initial shock. It wasn’t a shock of empty fields, but of broken links.

Lockdowns froze the movement of migrant labourers, leaving harvests to rot.

Port closures and shipping container chaos disrupted the intricate dance of global trade, making it impossible to get food from where it was grown to where it was needed.

Most critically, the lockdowns crushed the purchasing power of the poor.

When markets are physically closed and incomes evaporate, it doesn’t matter if food is available in a warehouse – it is out of reach.

This was a crisis of access, not just availability.

Ukraine’s strategic importance

Just as the world was struggling to its feet, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine struck at the heart of the global grain trade.

Ukraine and Russia aren’t just regional suppliers; they are linchpins, providing a significant share of the world’s wheat, barley, sunflower oil and fertiliser.

The war didn’t just take Ukrainian fields out of production, it weaponised food itself. Blockaded ports, embargoes, and skyrocketing energy prices sent food commodity markets into a frenzy.

But the impact went deeper than the headlines about wheat.

The war-induced spike in natural gas prices sent the cost of nitrogen fertiliser – made from gas – into the stratosphere.

This created a second-round” shock that will haunt us for seasons to come.

Farmers from Kansas to Kenya are being forced to use less fertiliser, which means lower yields and smaller harvests next year, planting the seeds for the next crisis today.

The climate multiplier

Looming over both these acute shocks is the relentless, slow-burn emergency of climate change.

While the pandemic and war are dramatic disruptors, climate change is the persistent threat that weakens the system’s very foundations.

We are no longer talking about future risks; we are seeing them now.

Prolonged droughts in the Horn of Africa are creating famine-like conditions.

Historic heatwaves in India withered wheat crops, leading to export bans.

Floods in Pakistan submerged millions of acres of farmland.

Climate change is the ultimate ‘threat multiplier’.

It makes recovering from a pandemic harder.

It makes the loss of Ukrainian wheat more devastating because other regions are also failing.

It ensures that food price shocks are not temporary anomalies but recurring features of our new reality.

Building resilience

So, where do we go from here?

The solution is not to retreat into protectionism or blame. Export bans, as we’ve seen, only deepen global panic and drive prices higher.

Instead, we must build a system that is shock-resistant, not just efficient.

This requires a three-pronged approach.

Diversify and decentralise: We must reduce the world’s dependence on a handful of mega-suppliers by investing in regional food production and diverse supply routes.

Supporting smallholder farmers in Africa and Asia isn’t just a development goal; it’s a core strategy for global stability.

Build smart safety nets: We need social protection systems – like cash transfers and school feeding programmes – that can be scaled up instantly in a crisis.

These protect the most vulnerable from price spikes and ensure that short-term shocks don’t lead to long-term malnutrition.

Embrace climate-smart agriculture: The future of food depends on our ability to adapt.

This means investing in drought-resistant crops, efficient irrigation and farming practices that restore soil health and sequester carbon.

Asean’s imperative

The pandemic, the war and the climate crisis have delivered a painful, unambiguous lesson: our food security is only as strong as its weakest link.

We can no longer afford to treat food as just another commodity. It is a fundamental right and a cornerstone of global peace.

The time for tinkering at the edges is over. We must act with urgency to build a food system that can weather the next storm, because the next storm is already on the horizon.

The countries of Asean must take the issue of food security seriously. This is because the climate threat to this region – with its 700 million people – is already showing signs of intensifying.

Time to act.

Professor Dato Ahmad Ibrahim is affiliated with the Tan Sri Omar Centre for STI Policy Studies at UCSI University and is an adjunct professor at the Ungku Aziz Centre for Development Studies, University of Malaya.

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