The Contest In Penang by Toh Kin Woon
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Anything less convincing, say a failure by the BN to obtain a two-thirds majority in the parliamentary election, may weaken his position within his own party. Coming from Penang, a convincing victory in his own state is even more critical. The Contest In Penang Like in all previous elections, the contests for both the parliamentary and state seats in Penang in the next election are expected to be keen and tough. For this is the state where leaders of three major parties will likely be contesting - Dato Seri Abdullah; Dr. Wan Azizah bt Wan Ismail, the president of keADILan and Lim Kit Siang, chairman of the Democratic Action Party (DAP), long renowned for his fearless criticism of the ruling coalition. It is also well known that Penang voters are well capable of shifts in moods that can make electoral outcomes close. A total of 40 state seats, an addition of 7 over the current number, and 13 parliamentary seats, two more than now, will be up for grabs. Contests are expected in all seats. Factors Impinging On The Outcome Like previously, the inter-play of national, state-wide and local issues are likely to affect the overall outcome of the electoral contests in Penang. National factors affect the general mood of voters, who can feel good and secure or down and insecure, depending on the inter-play of these factors. The performance of the economy; availability of tertiary educational opportunities; amd national security and personal safety especially of women are among some of these factors. Still others include the availability or otherwise of democratic space and Islamisation versus secularism.
The generally good record of most of the incumbent BN members of parliament and state assembly members in providing services to their electorate; their access to development funds which facilitates minor capital works projects; support from the media; and the recent redelineation of constituencies that generally favour the BN in the State are all likely to work in the BN�s favour. And Dato Seri Abdullah�s ascendance to the premiership is likely to be an added boost to these electoral prospects. Problems But the BN is not without problems. Intra-party squabbles (remnants of MCA�s Team A versus Team B struggles for the largesse of political office) and inter-party conflict between Gerakan and MCA are among these problems. There will be a contest between the two parties for the right to contest in Dato Keramat and Bayan Lepas, a bigger share of the additional seats; and ultimately, the post of Chief Minister For the record, Lim Boo Chang, the current State Assemblyman for Dato Keramat and Lim Chien Aun, the incumbent State Assemblyman for Bayan Lepas, crossed over from the Gerakan to the MCA shortly after the 1999 general election. The recent controversial lifting of the freeze on Lim Boo Chang and Tan Cheng Liang, the assemblywoman for Jawi, and whether or not they can contest in the next election are likely to raise the tension between the two parties further. Both Lim and Tan were suspended following their abstention on a motion to delay implementation of the PORR project tabled by the opposition DAP in the State Assembly. Machang Bubuk Let me now say something about my own constituency of Machang Bubuk. Following the recent redelineation, this constituency is more mixed than before: Malays 40%; Chinese 51% and Indians 9% now versus Malays 33%, Chinese 58% and Indians 9% previously. Given that KeADILan has a strong presence here, aside from Permatang Pauh, the parliamentary seat now held by Dr. Wan Azizah, Machang Bubuk has now become even more marginal. Assuming the same pattern of voting in the next general election as that in 1999, the BN can still retain the seat, but with its majority, already reduced from 5,000 plus to just over 2,000 in 1999, further reduced to just over a thousand votes. A shift of a few hundred votes from the BN to the opposition in the next election will spell trouble for the BN.
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This is the state where leaders of three major parties will likely be contesting - Dato Seri Abdullah; Dr. Wan Azizah bt Wan Ismail, the president of keADILan and Lim Kit Siang, chairman of the Democratic Action Party (DAP), long renowned for his fearless criticism of the ruling coalition.
