Who will be his deputy?

A smooth transition?

I was bemused by a columnist in The Star whose musings clearly belied a glibness about how smooth the transition of leadership from Mahathir to Abdullah was. To be sure, Malaysia�s record of leadership succession has been quite remarkable for a �Third World� country; it has had four transitions of leadership. Now, into the middle of its fourth decade of independence, chances are that the affable Pak Lah will duly ensconce himself as premier, albeit rather fortuitously after three deputy premiers had fallen by the wayside. Not quite so smooth, really.

As is our wont, Malaysians have subjected themselves to bouts of rumour-mongering and extravagant speculation long before the event of Pak Lah�s succession. One interesting early rumour was that some 20-odd divisions of UMNO were ready to call an EGM of the party to ask Che Det to remain in the job. Nothing of that sort happened of course and in the event we know that the Great Pumpkin Spirit did not hesitate to take the good doctor away on Halloween night� to Spain, I mean!

Then there was much talk that because Pak Lah had not (and still has not) named his deputy, political jockeying and factional infighting for the Number Two spot in the party would make for a chaotic transition. Again, nothing of that sort happened. All contenders and factions have remained remarkably supportive of the newly anointed PM and show no signs of being embroiled in internal struggles despite his reluctance to name a deputy.

Now, of course much speculation is rife as to whom Pak Lah is likely to anoint to be Number Two and much speculation too about when this will happen. Defence minister Najib Abdul Razak isn�t coy about his �frontrunner� position (ever since Mahathir suggested his name) and has made subtle noises to the press that he is indeed an eligible candidate. But Pak Lah so far has refused to fall for the Najib bait. To compound the issue, rampant rumours suggest that the two wives don�t get along. Mahahtir owes a huge due to Tun Abdul Razak, who resurrected him from the ashes of political oblivion, but Pak Lah has no such utang budi. To my mind, Najib�s future remains somewhat iffy.

Or would Pak Lah prefer a woman deputy? If so, this would make him a most progressive PM. Hence, Rafidah Aziz, the senior woman minister, would seem most suitably poised for the job, baubles, bangles and all. Nah, say the pundits, she won�t past muster with the UMNO rank and file. UMNO is so sexist that you�ll never see the day when a woman will be an education minister, a finance minister, deputy PM and God forbid, Numero Uno!

So would Pak Lah then choose the most senior man in the pack? That would be Ku Li. With his vast experience, and past accolade of Baba Ekonomi Bumiputera, Razaleigh clearly qualifies except for that conspicuous faux pas and brief dalliance with the opposition during the S46 period. But does anyone still remember that S46 thingy? Seems like it never happened now that the spirit of 46 has all but evaporated and Ku Li seems comfortably reunited with the party. Very comfortable indeed, now that his nemesis has actually left the stage! When you have the stamina and stay the course, surely you�re should be in for some reward. Come to think of it, Pak Lah was himself a �Team B� man for a while under Ku Li. Hmmmm�.

Other potential contenders include the other two UMNO Veeps, Muhiyiddin and Mat Taib. But, I think not. The pundits have it that dubious dealings in the past (let�s put it that way) disqualify these two. But could the scenario be something of a rank-and-file uprising to demand a candidate of their choice? This did happened in 1976 when Hussein Onn took the reins of power only to be told he had to choose from among Mahathir, Ghafar or Razaleigh for his deputy, while his own preferred candidate was the luckless Ghazali Shafie. This could happen again if the anointed PM is considered to be too �weak� or does not have a clear heir apparent. Pak Lah � the fourth of Mahathir�s deputies � does indeed have to live down quite hard the image of being a last choice and of lacking charisma, unlike a deputy such as Anwar Ibrahim.

Now this brings me to the next subject�the 11th General Election. And this will also answer the question of when the deputy will be chosen. Since Pak Lah faces the problem of being picked by an outgoing PM and never really winning his spurs for the job, he has to establish a legitimacy and authority not just with his party but with the other BN partners as well.

What better way than to get his mandate through leading the BN parties to victory in the next general election. Indeed, he has little choice. Imagine appointing a whole new cabinet on the thin legitimacy of a hand-me-down authority of the previous PM. How would he justify removing ministers he dislikes and putting in ones he likes? Pak Lah needs a general election to give him that authority, only then can he truly claim to have made that transition as leader of the country.

Musings on the hustings

So, when is the general election? Again, this is the subject of much, much speculation. But Malaysians are truly expert on such predictions. They have honed it down to a fine art. They do it by a process of elimination and most times can get it right. Let�s see if I can do this here by stating the following obvious points:

• Going by the five-year limit, a general election is due by November next year since the last was held in November1999.
• General elections are usually held during school breaks when both manpower and schools as polling stations are available.
• The school holidays fall on December 2003, March 2004 and August 2004.