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Retaining the state seat of Machang Bubuk An analysis at close hand
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From being �safe� for the BN in 1995, Machang Bubuk had become �marginal� in 1999. The principal reason was, the Malay voters (34% of total voters) in the constituency would remain loyal to Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim and vote for Parti Keadilan Nasional (Keadilan). A single shift I managed to retain my seat in 1999. Yet it seemed to me, before the 2004 general election, that Machang Bubuk had become even more �marginal�! This was chiefly due to the constituency redelineation exercise conducted by the Election Commission in 2000. The redelineation of Machang Bubuk shifted its entire polling district of Taman Alma, with over 5,000 voters (80% Chinese, 8% Malay and 12% Indian), to the neighbouring state constituency of Berapit. The Election Commission did nothing else to the constituency. However, that single shift was potentially critical. In 1999, BN won Taman Alma with a majority of 1037 votes � half the overall majority of 2,059. Of course, Taman Alma�s excision reduced the geographical expanse and voting population of Machang Bubuk. The number of voters was 22,548 in 1999 but only 19,356 in 2003. The ethnic composition of the voters changed considerably for what was left of Machang Bubuk constituency. Before redelinea-tion, there were 34.1% Malay voters, 56.7% Chinese voters and 9.2% Indian voters. After redelineation, the proportions were: 40.3% Malay, 50.8% Chinese and 8.9% Indian.
Strange shifts As it turned out, BN won the 2004 contest with a convincing majority of 5,655 votes! That figure was more than twice the 1999 majority before redelineation, or more than five times the majority for Machang Bubuk without Taman Alma. The BN�s share of total valid votes rose to 68.6% from 56% in 1999. In 1999, BN had lost in all polling districts that had a Malay majority. Last month, BN won in all such polling districts except Cerok To�kun, Anwar Ibrahim�s home village. On the whole, BN obtained 60% of the Malay votes in Machang Bubuk, compared with only 44% in 1999. The BN�s share of votes also increased from about 65% in 1999 to about 75% in 2004 in predominantly Chinese and Indian polling districts. Simultaneously, the majorities in such districts (Alma and Permatang Tinggi, for example), as well as ethnically mixed districts (such as Taman Seri Kijang and Bukit Teh), rose quite significantly. In short, the Machang Bubuk contest featured a strong shift of electoral support back to BN, a shift that was felt nationwide at both parliamentary and state assembly levels. Reasons and factors Many psephologists have offered their reasons for this shift. If valid, the reasons apply as much to Machang Bubuk. The first was the �feelgood� factor generated by some of Prime Minister Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi�s initiatives. His declared intentions to wipe out corruption, improve the delivery of public services, enhance educational standards, and re-emphasize agricultural and rural development helped to inspire confidence in the new administration. Economically, good prices for primary commodities such as palm oil, rubber and cocoa raised rural incomes momentarily, while prospects of a cyclical upturn in the electronics sector fed into the �feelgood� environment. The Prime Minister�s amiable character and moderate Islamic stance were influential since they endeared him to many voters, including those once disgruntled with BN. Against all that, the �Anwar Ibrahim factor�, so critical in arousing sympathy and support for the Opposition in 1999, had been much diluted. In Machang Bubuk, little remained of the impact of previously strong preceptions that state power had been unfairly used to annihilate Anwar�s political career and struggle. It was notable that Keadilan�s majority in the polling area of Cerok To�kun fell to 89 in 2204 from 670 in 1999. The tendency of urban (non-Malay) voters to split their votes between supporting �BN for the state� and �Opposition for parliament� helped the BN state assembly candidate for Machang Bubuk. In contrast, the BN parliamentary candidate lost in Machang Bubuk to his DAP opponent. This split, much less pronounced among Malay voters, was influenced by a desire both for �developmentalism� at state and local levels, as well as for a stronger opposition in Parliament. For Machang Bubuk specifically, there was one other major cause for Keadilan�s poorer performance. Keadilan showed an almost total absence of election machinery while the Keadilan candidate hardly campaigned! Back to a safe future? For the BN, the prospects for future elections in Machang Bubuk are good, at least for the state seat. This forecast assumes that Malay voters have �returned to UMNO�s fold� and non-Malay support is largely stable. But the accuracy of any electoral forecast is dependent upon many dynamic factors. These factors include the performance of the BN government at the Federal and State levels over the next few years, the extent to which electoral promises are fulfilled, and, of course, the performance of the State Assembly representative. Yet one shouldn�t discount new challenges posed by the Opposition, or, for that matter, the impact of electoral reforms.
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The Prime Minister�s amiable character and moderate Islamic stance were influential since they endeared him to many voters, including those once disgruntled with BN.
